If you go to http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/28850/draftanalysis, yahoosports.com provides you the average draft position of each player as a result of this years mock and real league drafts. As Yahoosports is one of the top fantasy football websites it is a very good way to get an idea of what round and spot you may end up having to draft someone. I often check the ADP of players im looking to draft or keeping my eyes on to see if they are currently, under or over valued, or valued as I believe they should be.
This is list of a few players i believe should be drafted higher or lower than they currently are being drafted.
Eli Manning (NYG QB): Eli is currently being drafted just ahead of Matt Stafford and behind Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman. Eli has thrown for 4000 yards in each of the last two seasons, with 58 TD passes. Those are some very impressive fantasy numbers. He struggled with turnovers last season, but his team struggled as a whole. He has some of the most talented young wideouts in the league to throw to so expect him to put up another 3500+ yard season without about 25 TD passes.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI WR): Larry Fitz is currently being drafted about 20th overall, as the 5th overall wideout selected just behind Hakeem Nicks, ahead of Greg Jennings and Miles Austin. Larry is undoubtedly one if the most gifted WR;s in the league today. He has speed, grit and amazing hands. What he lacks, is a QB, something Jennings and Austin both have. If Kurt warner was still at the helm it would justify Fitz going as the 5th overall WR, maybe higher, but with the current QB situation in Arizona, you will not see me taking Larry when people like Jennings, Austin, Bowe, Wallace, DeSean, Wayne and V Jackson are likely all available.
Peyton Hillis (CLE RB): Some people are scared of Peyton Hillis because of the Madden Curse, but I’m just afraid of him because of him team. I don’t believe the Browns will be good enough of a team for Hillis to be able to repeat last season. He wore down as the season ended, averaging just under 60 yards over his final few games. Cleveland staff likely realized this and will have Hillis sharing touches to keep him healthy as the season moves on. Opponents will focus in on Hillis as the Browns main threat and stuff the box forcing him to run outside and his team to try other options.
Tony Gonzalez (ATL TE): Tony G is being drafted just behind NO break out TE Jimmy Graham. While Ido believe GOnzo will have another good season, its almost impossible for him not too, I do believe he will once again decline in stats. WR Roddie White showed the last two seasons he is the number #1 target for QB Matt Ryan and one of the premier Wideouts in the league. With the addition of Rookie WR Julio Jones it is likely Tony will see decreased targets. It is quite possible young TE’s such as Mercedes Lewis of Jacksonville, Zack Miller of Oakland and Kellen Winslow of Tampa Bay could have more productive seasons.
Daniel Thomas vs Mark Ingram: Maybe its my love for the Dolphin, but I cant help but think RB Daniel Thomas will be more productive as the main back in Miami than Mark Ingram will be in the crowded NO backfield.
Ryan Grant (GB RB): Ryan Grant is gonig to be a hard player to predict this coming season. After a great 2009 campaign, his 2010 run ended with a injury in game one as he watched his team fight to a Superbowl Championship. This to me, will only add fire to the flame for Grant, who is a big power runner. James Starks emerged as a quality RB for Green Bay Grants absence, but Grant is the more proven player and claims to be feeling 100%. If this is the case expect another good season from Grant who will likely have faded in fantasy land due to his lack of a 2010 season.
Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams (CAR RB’s): This is another RB situation that will need to be monitored as the season approaches. it is uncertain where Williams will end up once a new CBA is signed, making it very difficult who has the higher value. If Williams ends up playing elsewhere Stewart would be left as the lead back and likely have increased value, but will also be sharing with break out RB and pass catcher Mike Goodson. Williams is even more complicated. If he stays in Carolina, he will likely continue to split touches with Stewart, as of the premier RB tandems in the league. If he leaves he could end up being the lead back in a new offence, which could mean great things for him.