ADP = Average Draft Position
Looking at this year’s draft board, I can’t help but realize how much depth there is at about every position available, there isn’t a draft position that should leave you feeling like you’ve been slighted. From first picks to 12th pick, this year’s fantasy shelf is stocked with enough meat and potatoes to fill up everyone’s plate.
With this post I will talk about a number of players at various positions who are slipping on draft boards, or just don’t get talked about this year that will be able to add good value to your team. My goal here is to offer you players you can draft for example in the 5th round, but should have a 3rd or 4th round value. Ready? Lets Go.
Peyton Manning – Tom Brady – Drew Brees – Philip Rivers –
All of these QB’s have dropped outside of the first round in these years’ drafts according to yahoosports.com. In recent years each has been worthy of a first round pick, and I believe they still are. Peyton has not finished outside top 6 QB’s in fantasy since being a rookie; he is the picture of consistency (hasn’t missed a game either). Brady is one of the leagues elite QB’s and manages the leagues most potent offence from 2010;there is no question Brady will be putting up a lot of points again this season. Brees attempts more throws per game than most QB’s in this league, it is only inevitable he will put up solid yards and TD totals. Rivers has been in talks of MVP awards in recent years and its no wonder why, he can throw the ball with the best of them. Vincent Jackson has resigned along with Malcolm Floyd, meaning Rivers will have his two top options back at WR.
Each of these QB’s will undoubtedly put up great fantasy point totals, barring an injury; these are some of the most consistent fantasy point providers in the game.
Matt Forte – Shonn Greene – Ahmad Bradshaw – LaGarrette Blount
The earliest ADP of these 4 RB’s is Matt Forte with an average ADP of 30th overall, next comes Greene at 34, Bradshaw at 41 and finally Blount at 50. Each of these RB’s has the potential to finish inside the top 10, even up with the top ranked RB’s of Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster. Don’t be upset if you get a draft pick outside the top 10 and feel as though you can get a top ranked RB, let one of these players fall to you and grab them at value. It is more likely RB’s like this will have better than expected seasons than for the guys already ranked in the top 5. My personal favorite here is Blount at pick 50.
Dwayne Bowe – Vincent Jackson – Jeremy Maclin – Percy Harvin –
Brandon Lloyd – Dez Bryant – Austin Collie – Wes Welker –
This years draft certainly has a lot of depth at WR; the ADP of the players listed ranges from 32 all the way until 71. Dwayne Bowe led the league last year in TD catches yet has slipped to an ADP below 30th overall. Brandon Lloyd let the league is receiving yards last year and has slipped even further to about the 45th pick. Bowe has slipped due to the lack of people’s confidence in Matt Cassel, but I think as long as Bowe sees a large number of targets again, his talent will do the rest. Lloyd was in his 8th year when he broke out last year, making people think he is a flash in the pan, but I think if he can do it one he can do it again, and since Denver looks to be starting Orton again, things are looking good for Lloyd to have another good season; he wont reproduce last season, but should outperform where his ADP has fallen too. Vincent Jackson was a monster 2 seasons ago when he played a full season, and it looks as though he is ready to play a full 16 game schedule this year again, if he does I predict a top 10 finish at WR. Maclin’s stock suffers due to the hype around DeSean Jackson, if you are like me and think Jackson is over rated or just don’t like him, don’t be afraid to wait and let Maclin slide to you, he will match Jackson’s fantasy output. Dez Bryant and Percy Harvin and a couple of young studs in the making, both had explosive rookie campaigns and Harvin continued to produce last season. With Tony Romo back at behind centre, Dez should see a nice boost in his numbers with a QB who can get him the ball more often. Harvin now has a veteran slinger in McNabb for this season which should help him get more yards this season to go along with his great return game. Don’t be surprised if these #2-3 quality WR’s finish with great numbers. Wes Welker didn’t finish with 100 yards for the first time in a few years last season, but he did have 7 TD’s a nice jump from the 4 he had a season before; he is another player who slides in the draft board because his team spread around the ball so much, but Welker is a staple in this offence, always seeing a high number of targets. Austin Collie was on the verge on being an elite WR in this league before he suffered a pair of concussions in 2010. Provided he can stay on the field for close to a full season, Collie has the skills and drive to once again become and elite level WR in the NFL.
Todd Heap – Mercedes Lewis – Brandon Pettigrew – Dustin Keller
The TE spot is extremely deep this year, so finding one to draft shouldn’t be to tough, but just incase you left drafting one until pretty late in your draft, here are some options who will likely be available late and can have big seasons. Todd Heap is now in Arizona playing with a quality QB looking to reestablish himself with a new team; when not slinging to Fitz, Kolb will likely be dishing the ball a good number of times to his talented TE Todd Heap. Marcedes Lewis had an excellent season in 2010 catching 58 balls for 700 yards and 10 TD’s. Matching that TD total will be hard for him to repeat but certainly not out of the question. If Garrard returns as the starter than he has the same QB from last year, which should boost his stats. If Gabbert becomes the starter than I believe he will take a hit, but possibly not a big one. If will require waiting to see but Marcedes could become a favorite for Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. Brandon Pettigrew was fairly solid as a TE last year, and looks to only get better this season with another year under his belt and QB Matt Stafford returning to the lineup. Should Stafford stay healthy it could be a boost to the budding young TE, helping him bring up his 4 TD total from 2010. Dustin Keller is currently going at about 130th overall despite being a favorite target of the ever evolving QB Mark Sanchez. His 700 yard 5 TD stat line from last year is good enough for a TE going this late in the draft, but I believe his relationship with Sanchez will only grow, resulting in more targets.
That is all for my article about players who are likely to outplay their ADP. This year has a lot of depth, so don’t be afraid to let players fall to you to ensure every pick you make, especially late in the draft gets you the maximum value.
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