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Average Draft Position based on Yahoo! Fantasy Football mock drafts from August 12, 2013.
All Quarterbacks drafted in the first couple rounds – Hopefully this is becoming common knowledge for owners going into 2013 fantasy drafts; wait on quarterback. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Kaepernick, and RGIII are all being drafted in the first few rounds, when people should still be focusing on filling in their running back and wide receiver slots. I would suggest waiting until the middle rounds to draft someone like Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford or Andrew Luck. I find myself often waiting even longer and still ending up with Russell Wilson, Tony Romo or Eli Manning, all of whom can be excellent starting quarterbacks this season with potential to outplay some of those drafted before them.
RB David Wilson (NYG) 70.5 ADP – As they should be running backs are going early and often in most mock drafts that I have been in. The first round is almost entirely running backs while the second is a healthy mix of RB and WR. After seeing Reggie Bush and Frank Gore go off the board there seems to be a drastic drop off in running back potential and ADP. David Wilson is at times being forced upon people as a RB2 in the 6th round. While there is really no one else that I would rather draft at this point either, I suggest perhaps waiting on some later round running backs. Don’t forget about Andre Brown who has an ADP over 100 but was the touchdown workhorse for the Giants last year.
RB Lamar Miller (MIA) 52 ADP – It pains me to have to include Miller on this list as I cheer for the Dolphins, but I can’t ignore what I see. It was not long ago that Daniel Thomas was being drafted in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts as people thought he would breakout for the Dolphins, but failed to even come close. I have more faith in Miller to become a solid starter for the Dolphins, but am not convinced that this will be a huge year for him. For starters, the team has made off-season additions that should improve the passing game, and many of us watched as he fumbled on the Dolphins first preseason drive against the Cowboys. He then received all of two carries against the Jaguars in the second Dolphins preseason game while a slew of other young players tried their best to earn the backup role. The bottom line is that I don’t think I would completely trust Miller as a sure-fire RB2
WR Jordy Nelson (GB) 41.7 ADP – This ADP is likely to fall with the announcement that Nelson is going to miss 4-6 weeks and is questionable for week one. Even when healthy Nelson is not going to be the teams #1 option, that is Randall Cobb, and he also has to contend with Jams Jones who proved himself as an excellent red zone target last season. There are also reports of TE Jermichael Finely having a great camp and is going into a contract season. Nelson is going to have to really battle for touchdowns. I would feel much better if I could grab Nelson as a WR3 than a WR2.
WR Torrey Smith (BAL) 49.8 ADP – A couple of things to consider here, Boldin is no longer on the roster and Pitta is out for the season. This is going to mean more targets for Smith as the de-facto go to target for Flacco, but also means he is going to see A LOT of double teams. Smith only caught 49 of 110 targets that went his way in 2012, which does not bode well for the third year receiver with a history of being boom or bust. Going into 2013 drafts I don’t think I have taken Torrey once and view him as more of a WR3/Flex option than a WR2.
TE Kyle Rudolph 68.5 ADP – Rudolph broke out last year with some huge multiple touchdown games but also had many games without much more than a pair of fantasy points. With obvious talent, quarterback Christian Ponder is one of the main reasons why Rudolph could have trouble taking a step forward in 2013. Greg Jennings has also been added to the roster and will demand targets. Finally, the Vikings still have Adrian Peterson and are going to be running the ball a lot, and Rudolph will need to be blocking. Besides a few elite tight ends at the top, the rest of the options are pretty wide open and I am not convinced that Rudolph has the potential of guys like Bennett, Finley and Cook, going much later in drafts.