My Five (5) Favourite Point Spread Betting Lines for Week Eleven (11) of the 2013 NFL Football Season.
Go With Your Gut!
4-1 Last Week.
20-29-1 Through Ten (10) Weeks.
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New York Jets +1.5 @ Buffalo Bills
The only two reasons I could find to like the Bills was that they are playing at home and should have a much healthier EJ Manuel. On the other hand though Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are the most potent part of the Bills offence but are going against a top ranked rush defence and while Manuel is back, Stevie Johnson and rookie Robert Woods are both inactive for the game. I don’t think this is going to be a very exciting or high scoring game, but I like Geno Smith and the Jets running game to control the tempo and earn a 3-7 point win over the Bills. The Bills have lost three straight games by ten or more points and have only won twice this year by a combined five points. Jets +1.5.
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans -6.5
The Raiders were able to cover a 7-point spread last week against the Giants, but that was the Giants. Despite being only 2-7 on the season the Texans have been a tough team to play and could be 4-3 easily due to a few close losses (Four games lost by 3 or less). The Texans have also looked like a much more potent offense under Case Keenum (a Start ‘em pick this week) while the Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor is dealing with knee injuries, significantly limiting his game. Under Keenum I like the Texans offense better and have always preferred their defence. The Texans get a statement win at home. Texans -6.5.
San Francisco ‘49ers @ New Orleans Saints -3.5
Without more than one solid receiving option, offense has been hard to come by at times for the ‘49ers, where as the Saints posted 49 points last week when they played at home. The ‘49ers should run the ball quite a bit as the Saints have struggled against the run, but I still think that Drew Brees will be able to put up multiple touchdowns at home, where the Saints always play well. I don’t think the ‘49ers will be able to stop the Saints all game long and will struggle to score points themselves with Crabtree still out and the secondary making life hard on recently concussed Vernon Davis. Saints -3.5.
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots +2.5
The Panthers are on a roll having won 5 games in a row, most recently getting a hard fought win over the ‘49ers, giving them a 3-point spread despite being on the road against the Tom Brady and the Patriots. I am not buying it though for a couple reasons. First of all the Panthers have won games over mediocre teams with backup quarterbacks and a San Fran team that was outplaying them until Vernon Davis was forced to leave the game. Also, I have learned over the years it is usually not a good idea to bed against Tom Brady under the lights. On national television and Gronk, Amendola and Vereen active, Did I mention that the Patriots are coming off the bye? I think Brady spreads the ball out and gets the out right win in Carolina. Patriots +3.5.
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 @ Chicago Bears
As solid as Josh McCown has looked in place of Bears usual starting quarterback Jay Cutler, the offence does take a step back under him and could focus on Matt Forte for more work. The Ravens have been extremely disappointing this season having lost three in a row before earning the overtime win over the Bengals last week. In the Ravens last five games (3 losses) the game has been decided by three or less points in four of them. The Bears are also missing key player on the defensive side of the ball including leaders Peanut Tillman and Lance Briggs. I would not be surprised if the Bears somehow pulled out the win at home, but I don’t see it being more than a field goal. Ravens +3.5.
Best of Luck!